22/02/13 - Cane producers of the Center South region are optimistic about the 2013/14 harvest. The main reason is the positive climatic influence on growing cane fields during 2012.
The abundant rainfall during last year´s 2nd quarter - up to +393.6% above average in Jun/12, according to DATAGRO´s Relative Rainfall Index - along with temperatures significantly higher than the historic average, boosted the development of sugarcane to be harvested at the beginning and middle of next season. The satisfactory rainfall in sugarcane areas from Set/12 on also contributed for this scenario.
Good field reform and expansion rates reduced the average age of plantations and allowed lower levels of weed infestation, positively influencing the expectations of agricultural yield for 2013/14. The reform rate of cane plantations was approximately 20.5% in the Center South region, slightly better than the average 15% of the last 12 years.
If weather conditions remain closer to normal average levels, an increase in agricultural yield of sugarcane plantations in the Center South region between 7% and 9% is expected.
Mills expect more efficiency in mechanized harvesting on the next crop due to higher productivity in crop fields. This increment could result in lower costs of CCT (cut, carry and transport), one of the most relevant in Agricultural Operations.
There is also optimism about the levels of TRS expected for next season. The abundant rainfalls during the harvesting period of the 12/13 cycle have carried large amounts of mineral impurities to the mills. If rainfall throughout 2013/14 stays in line with the climatological normal, there will be higher levels of TRS than those observed in the previous harvest.
Considering the variables mentioned, the crushing of sugar cane in Brazil´s Center South is estimated between 580 million to 590 million tons in the 2013/14 crop, against 535.7 million tons of the 2012/13 crop season.